NZ Financial Articles

Kevin Armstrong’s Financial articles

Here is a small sample of articles published in the NZ Herald financial and business pages in the last few years.

Article New Zealand Herald: : Global tides pull at stocks

For the past three years the New Zealand share market has been delivering stellar returns, with the gross index returning in excess of 20 per cent in 2003 and in 2004.

Moreover, since the global share market bubble burst in early 2000 the New Zealand market has been one of the best-performing markets in the world.
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Article 21/10/2007: Is it the end of the golden weather?

Share Some see an end to the great bull run. Twenty years on; no one is expecting a re-run of the sharemarket crash of October 1987. But then, no one was really expecting France to beat the All Blacks.

Those who lived through the share crash are adamant the conditions that gave rise to the events of 20 years ago on Tuesday are not present in today’s market. But neither are they willing to be unequivocal on the matter. It’s the old story: you never say never.

Right now the market is awash with a deluge of commentary covering the full spectrum of possible outcomes for global and local economies, and sharemarkets.

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Article 15/03/2009: Testing the sharemarket waters

Jeremy Grantham is to managed funds what Warren Buffett is to the sharemarket the ultimate guru, with a track record to prove it.

So when Grantham last week urged investors to start moving money from cash to shares before “rigor mortis” set in on the latter, it was time to take notice.

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Article 06/07/2008: Investors look for signs of value

Share crashes hurt speculators, not investors. What does the damage is a protracted bear market. And that is something Kiwi investors who’ve been around know a lot about.

There’s no disputing the sharemarket has crashed – the benchmark NZX50 Index is down more than 25% since an October 2007 high. But how long will the resulting bear market hang around?

“Tell me where oil prices are heading, and I’ll tell you the answer to that one,” says NZ First Capital strategist Jason Wong.

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Article 26/04/2009: There’s no shelter from the storm

The local sharemarket is facing its worst recession-inspired slump in post-war history following last week’s bone-crunching halt to a global bear market rally.

Research by brokers Forsyth Barr shows previous sharemarket downturns lasted 15 months before a six-month relief rally which led to a lingering recovery extending over several years.

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Article 2/10/2002: Grin and bear it when the bubble bursts

Is now the time to panic and what’s special about 30 months? Stock markets worldwide have suffered some of their most dramatic declines of the past 50 years and now, 2 1/2 years after the peak, many of the accepted norms that became conventional wisdom through one of the most profitable and enduring bull markets are being questioned.

The idea that all an investor need do was “buy and hold” for the long term, and that equities always outperform other assets, was heard more and more as the bull market rolled on.

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Article 22/11/2005: Fashion is to oppose consensus

The challenging of views is essential for investors. No one is right all the time and continually challenging the robustness of one’s own conclusions is vital; success in investing is always a moving target.

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