Are we there yet?
Over the last few weeks, I have been encouraged to write an updated version of Strategy Thoughts by a number of long time readers. The last Strategy Thoughts came out in March 2021 and a lot has happened since then; the pandemic has largely passed, lockdowns, generally, have become a thing of history, inflation has soared, as have interest rates, and equity markets have clearly corrected or begun bear markets and economic forecasts have been, and continue to be, ratcheted down almost daily. This has understandably raised the question as to whether or not a sustainable bottom has been seen and whether a new bull market may soon be at hand. Those long time readers mentioned earlier have kindly reminded me of the remarkable timing Strategy Thoughts showed back in early 2009 in identifying what we then described as likely being the best buying opportunity since 2003. It certainly was, and it turned out to be a far better opportunity than I ever imagined possible. I had expected a cyclical bull market, much like that from 2003 to 2007, what we got was obviously substantially greater than that. This edition of Strategy Thoughts will focus on the question of whether or not we have seen, or are soon approaching, a bottom like that of 2009, and it will conclude with a very emphatic NO!